Using Intelligence for Capture
The Intelligence Center provides critical data for every phase of the capture process. This guide shows you how to apply contract intelligence to make better capture decisions and develop winning strategies.Capture Phase Applications
Phase 1: Opportunity Qualification
Goal: Decide whether to pursue an opportunity Intelligence Center Tasks:- Research the incumbent contractor
- Identify other likely competitors
- Assess typical contract sizes in this space
- Determine agency’s buying patterns
- Is the incumbent contract growing or declining?
- What’s the typical contract value for similar work?
- How competitive is this agency/market?
- Do we have relevant past performance?
1
Research the Incumbent
Search for the current contractor. Review their:
- Total contract value (is it worth competing?)
- Modification history (are they performing well?)
- Contract end date (timing for replacement)
- Relationship with agency (multiple contracts = strong relationship)
2
Assess Competition
Search for 3-5 known competitors. Compare:
- Their past performance with this agency
- Typical contract sizes they win
- Growth trajectories (who’s gaining share?)
- Competitive strengths (capabilities, relationships)
3
Calculate Win Probability
Use intelligence to inform your win probability:
- Strong incumbent + good performance = lower win probability
- Multiple competitors + no clear favorite = higher competition
- Your past performance + incumbent issues = better positioning
4
Make Bid/No-Bid Decision
Factor contract intelligence into your decision:
- Contract size justifies pursuit cost?
- Competition level acceptable?
- Incumbent vulnerable?
- Our differentiation clear?
Phase 2: Competitive Analysis
Goal: Understand the competitive landscape Intelligence Center Tasks:- Deep-dive on 3-5 primary competitors
- Identify their strengths and weaknesses
- Map their agency relationships
- Assess their capabilities
- Competitive profiles for each competitor
- SWOT analysis using contract data
- Relationship maps
- Capability assessments
Example: Competitive Profile
Example: Competitive Profile
Company: Acme SolutionsContract History:
- 23 contracts with DoD in last 3 years
- Average value: $2.3M
- Primary focus: IT modernization (NAICS 541512)
- Strong relationship with Army (12 contracts)
- Consistent positive modifications (avg +15% growth)
- Large contract experience ($8.5M largest)
- Limited Navy experience (1 contract)
- No recent cloud migration work
- Task orders declining in FY23
Phase 3: Teaming Strategy
Goal: Identify and evaluate teaming partners Intelligence Center Tasks:- Search for potential teaming partners
- Assess their capabilities via contract history
- Verify their past performance with target agency
- Determine appropriate roles (prime vs. sub)
- Relevant past performance
- Right-sized for the role
- Good performance history (positive mods)
- Complementary capabilities
- No conflicts of interest
Look for companies with 3-5 relevant contracts in the 2M range for subcontractor roles. Too large and they’ll want to prime; too small and they may lack capacity.
Phase 4: Relationship Mapping
Goal: Identify key government decision-makers Intelligence Center Tasks:- Extract POC information from competitor contracts
- Identify contracting officers and program offices
- Map relationships (who works with whom)
- Prioritize outreach targets
- Contracting Officers (KO): Authority to award contracts
- Contract Administrators: Day-to-day management
- Program Officials: Technical requirements owners
1
Extract POCs
Select incumbent and competitors. Review POC information across all their contracts with the target agency.
2
Identify Patterns
Note which contracting officers appear multiple times. These are key relationships to develop.
3
Create Relationship Map
Document:
- KO names and contact info
- Which companies they’ve awarded to
- Number and value of contracts
- Recent activity (last 6 months)
4
Prioritize Outreach
Focus on KOs who:
- Award contracts in your sweet spot size
- Work in your technical area
- Have awarded to competitors (understand their needs)
Phase 5: Price-to-Win Analysis
Goal: Develop competitive pricing strategy Intelligence Center Tasks:- Research actual contract values for similar work
- Analyze modification patterns (price growth/reduction)
- Compare contract types (FFP vs. cost-plus)
- Assess task order values for IDIQs
- Base Contract Values: Initial pricing benchmarks
- Modification Patterns: Price growth indicates value-add opportunities
- Contract Types: FFP suggests known scope; cost-plus suggests uncertainty
- Task Order Sizes: Actual work package sizing for IDIQs
Example: Price-to-Win Analysis
Example: Price-to-Win Analysis
Opportunity: IT Modernization SupportIntelligence Center Research:Similar Contracts (Last 2 Years):
- Acme Solutions: $2.3M (3-year, FFP)
- Beta Consulting: $1.8M (3-year, FFP)
- Gamma Tech: $2.7M (3-year, T&M)
- Acme: +$350K (15% growth) - scope additions
- Beta: -$200K (11% reduction) - poor performance
- Gamma: +$450K (17% growth) - option years
- Range: 2.7M
- Likely target: 2.3M
- Our position: $2.1M (competitive, not lowest)
- Price in middle of range
- Emphasize value differentiation
- Include option year pricing for growth
Phase 6: Win Themes Development
Goal: Develop compelling win themes Intelligence Center Tasks:- Analyze competitor weaknesses via contract data
- Identify incumbent vulnerabilities
- Find differentiation opportunities
- Support themes with data
Displacing a Declining Incumbent
Intelligence Basis:
- Incumbent has 3 deobligations (totaling -$500K)
- No positive modifications in 18 months
- Task order volume declining
Demonstrating Agency Experience
Intelligence Basis:
- Our company has 8 contracts with target agency
- Competitors have 0-2 contracts with agency
- We know key contracting officers
Right-Sized for the Work
Intelligence Basis:
- Our average contract size: $2.1M
- Opportunity size: $2.5M
- Competitor average: $8M (too large)
Emerging Technology Leader
Intelligence Basis:
- Our last 5 contracts focused on cloud migration
- Incumbent has no cloud contracts
- Competitors have limited cloud experience
Phase 7: Capture Plan Development
Goal: Create comprehensive capture plan Intelligence Center Contributions:- Executive Summary: Market intelligence and competitive landscape
- Competitive Analysis: Detailed competitor profiles with contract data
- Win Strategy: Themes and discriminators based on intelligence
- Teaming Strategy: Partner selection and justification
- Pricing Strategy: Price-to-win analysis with benchmarks
- Risk Assessment: Incumbent strengths and competitive threats
Include specific contract numbers, values, and dates in your capture plan. This data substantiates your analysis and demonstrates thorough research.
Capture Artifacts You Can Create
1. Competitive Intelligence Brief
Content:- Incumbent analysis (contract history, performance, relationships)
- Competitive landscape (3-5 competitors with profiles)
- Market trends (contract values, types, agencies)
- Recommendations (positioning, teaming, pricing)
- Export contract data for incumbent + competitors
- Create comparison tables (values, agencies, mods)
- Add analysis and insights
- Include relationship maps
- Develop recommendations
2. Price-to-Win Analysis
Content:- Historical contract values for similar work
- Contract type analysis (FFP, T&M, cost-plus)
- Modification patterns (price growth indicators)
- Recommended pricing range
- Competitive positioning
- Search for similar NAICS/PSC codes
- Filter to target agency if possible
- Export contract values and types
- Analyze modification patterns
- Calculate recommended range
3. Relationship Map
Content:- Key contracting officers
- Program officials and technical POCs
- Current contractor relationships
- Your existing relationships
- Gap analysis and outreach plan
- Review POC data for incumbent contracts
- Note contracting officers and roles
- Check your past contracts for relationships
- Map connections and gaps
- Prioritize relationship building
4. Teaming Justification
Content:- Potential partner identification
- Capability assessment via contract history
- Past performance validation
- Role recommendation (prime vs. sub)
- Workshare and management approach
- Search potential partners
- Review their relevant contracts
- Assess agency experience
- Check contract sizes (right-sized?)
- Validate performance (positive mods?)
Real-World Capture Scenarios
Scenario: Unseating an Incumbent
Situation: Your team is pursuing a $3M IT support contract currently held by Acme Solutions for 5 years. Intelligence Center Actions:1
Research Incumbent Performance
Search “Acme Solutions” and find their current contract:
- Original value: $2.8M (2018)
- Current value: $2.4M (after 3 deobligations)
- Negative mods: -$400K over last 2 years
- No positive mods since 2021
2
Understand Agency's Needs
Review Acme’s other contracts with the agency:
- Similar scope, but performing well (positive mods)
- This contract is an outlier (poor performance)
3
Assess Competition
Search 3 other known competitors:
- None have current contracts with this agency
- Average deal size: $4-6M (may view as too small)
4
Develop Win Strategy
Positioning: Fresh start with proven deliveryWin Themes:
- Emphasize our strong performance record (cite positive mods on our contracts)
- Highlight relevant agency experience
- Demonstrate right-sizing (this is our sweet spot)
Scenario: Breaking Into a New Agency
Situation: Your team wants to expand into the Department of Energy (DOE) but has no current relationships there. Intelligence Center Actions:1
Market Research
Search 5-7 companies known to work in DOE:
- Review their contract types and sizes
- Note common NAICS/PSC codes
- Identify typical contract structures (IDIQ vs. standalone)
2
Identify Entry Points
Filter contracts by size:
- Look for contracts under $1M (easier entry)
- Note small business set-asides
- Check for 8(a), SDVOSB, or WOSB opportunities
3
Find Teaming Partners
Search small businesses working in DOE:
- Review their contract history
- Assess capability alignment
- Verify active contracts (good standing)
4
Map Relationships
Extract POC data from Beta’s DOE contracts:
- Identify contracting officers
- Note program offices
- Track active procurements
Best Practices for Capture Use
Start Early
Begin intelligence gathering as soon as you identify an opportunity. Don’t wait until the RFP drops.
Update Regularly
Refresh your intelligence monthly during long capture cycles. New contracts and modifications change the landscape.
Share with Your Team
Use the URL sharing feature to give capture team members access to the same intelligence you’re viewing.
Document Your Sources
Include contract numbers and dates in your capture documents. This substantiates your analysis.
Combine with Other Intel
Use Intelligence Center data alongside other sources (LinkedIn, company websites, SAM.gov) for complete picture.
Common Capture Mistakes to Avoid
Mistake 1: Only Researching the IncumbentDon’t focus solely on the current contractor. Research 3-5 potential competitors to understand the full competitive landscape.
Mistake 2: Ignoring Contract Performance IndicatorsLook beyond contract values. Modification patterns, deobligations, and task order volumes indicate performance and relationships.
Mistake 3: Overlooking Small ContractsSmall contracts often lead to larger opportunities. Track your competitors’ entry points and follow their growth trajectory.
Mistake 4: Assuming Contract Values Are FinalBase contract values don’t tell the full story. Review modifications to understand actual spending and scope evolution.
Integration with Rogue Capture
The Intelligence Center integrates seamlessly with other Rogue Capture features:- Opportunities: Link intelligence to specific opportunities you’re tracking
- Competitive Intel: Feed contract data into SWOT analyses and competitor profiles
- Capture Plans: Include intelligence in win strategy development
- Relationships: Identify POCs to add to your stakeholder maps
When you identify a competitor or POC in the Intelligence Center, add them directly to your opportunity’s competitive intelligence or relationship sections.