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Using Intelligence for Capture

The Intelligence Center provides critical data for every phase of the capture process. This guide shows you how to apply contract intelligence to make better capture decisions and develop winning strategies.

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Capture Phase Applications

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Phase 1: Opportunity Qualification

Goal: Decide whether to pursue an opportunity Intelligence Center Tasks:
  1. Research the incumbent contractor
  2. Identify other likely competitors
  3. Assess typical contract sizes in this space
  4. Determine agency’s buying patterns
Key Questions to Answer:
  • Is the incumbent contract growing or declining?
  • What’s the typical contract value for similar work?
  • How competitive is this agency/market?
  • Do we have relevant past performance?
1

Research the Incumbent

Search for the current contractor. Review their:
  • Total contract value (is it worth competing?)
  • Modification history (are they performing well?)
  • Contract end date (timing for replacement)
  • Relationship with agency (multiple contracts = strong relationship)
2

Assess Competition

Search for 3-5 known competitors. Compare:
  • Their past performance with this agency
  • Typical contract sizes they win
  • Growth trajectories (who’s gaining share?)
  • Competitive strengths (capabilities, relationships)
3

Calculate Win Probability

Use intelligence to inform your win probability:
  • Strong incumbent + good performance = lower win probability
  • Multiple competitors + no clear favorite = higher competition
  • Your past performance + incumbent issues = better positioning
4

Make Bid/No-Bid Decision

Factor contract intelligence into your decision:
  • Contract size justifies pursuit cost?
  • Competition level acceptable?
  • Incumbent vulnerable?
  • Our differentiation clear?

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Phase 2: Competitive Analysis

Goal: Understand the competitive landscape Intelligence Center Tasks:
  1. Deep-dive on 3-5 primary competitors
  2. Identify their strengths and weaknesses
  3. Map their agency relationships
  4. Assess their capabilities
Deliverables:
  • Competitive profiles for each competitor
  • SWOT analysis using contract data
  • Relationship maps
  • Capability assessments
Company: Acme SolutionsContract History:
  • 23 contracts with DoD in last 3 years
  • Average value: $2.3M
  • Primary focus: IT modernization (NAICS 541512)
Strengths:
  • Strong relationship with Army (12 contracts)
  • Consistent positive modifications (avg +15% growth)
  • Large contract experience ($8.5M largest)
Weaknesses:
  • Limited Navy experience (1 contract)
  • No recent cloud migration work
  • Task orders declining in FY23
Threat Level: HIGH - Strong incumbent with good performanceOur Positioning: Emphasize our Navy relationships and cloud expertise

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Phase 3: Teaming Strategy

Goal: Identify and evaluate teaming partners Intelligence Center Tasks:
  1. Search for potential teaming partners
  2. Assess their capabilities via contract history
  3. Verify their past performance with target agency
  4. Determine appropriate roles (prime vs. sub)
Evaluation Criteria:
  • Relevant past performance
  • Right-sized for the role
  • Good performance history (positive mods)
  • Complementary capabilities
  • No conflicts of interest
Look for companies with 3-5 relevant contracts in the 500K−500K-2M range for subcontractor roles. Too large and they’ll want to prime; too small and they may lack capacity.

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Phase 4: Relationship Mapping

Goal: Identify key government decision-makers Intelligence Center Tasks:
  1. Extract POC information from competitor contracts
  2. Identify contracting officers and program offices
  3. Map relationships (who works with whom)
  4. Prioritize outreach targets
Key POC Types:
  • Contracting Officers (KO): Authority to award contracts
  • Contract Administrators: Day-to-day management
  • Program Officials: Technical requirements owners
1

Extract POCs

Select incumbent and competitors. Review POC information across all their contracts with the target agency.
2

Identify Patterns

Note which contracting officers appear multiple times. These are key relationships to develop.
3

Create Relationship Map

Document:
  • KO names and contact info
  • Which companies they’ve awarded to
  • Number and value of contracts
  • Recent activity (last 6 months)
4

Prioritize Outreach

Focus on KOs who:
  • Award contracts in your sweet spot size
  • Work in your technical area
  • Have awarded to competitors (understand their needs)

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Phase 5: Price-to-Win Analysis

Goal: Develop competitive pricing strategy Intelligence Center Tasks:
  1. Research actual contract values for similar work
  2. Analyze modification patterns (price growth/reduction)
  3. Compare contract types (FFP vs. cost-plus)
  4. Assess task order values for IDIQs
Pricing Insights:
  • Base Contract Values: Initial pricing benchmarks
  • Modification Patterns: Price growth indicates value-add opportunities
  • Contract Types: FFP suggests known scope; cost-plus suggests uncertainty
  • Task Order Sizes: Actual work package sizing for IDIQs
Opportunity: IT Modernization SupportIntelligence Center Research:Similar Contracts (Last 2 Years):
  • Acme Solutions: $2.3M (3-year, FFP)
  • Beta Consulting: $1.8M (3-year, FFP)
  • Gamma Tech: $2.7M (3-year, T&M)
Modification Analysis:
  • Acme: +$350K (15% growth) - scope additions
  • Beta: -$200K (11% reduction) - poor performance
  • Gamma: +$450K (17% growth) - option years
Price-to-Win Estimate:
  • Range: 1.8M−1.8M - 2.7M
  • Likely target: 2.0M−2.0M - 2.3M
  • Our position: $2.1M (competitive, not lowest)
Strategy:
  • Price in middle of range
  • Emphasize value differentiation
  • Include option year pricing for growth

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Phase 6: Win Themes Development

Goal: Develop compelling win themes Intelligence Center Tasks:
  1. Analyze competitor weaknesses via contract data
  2. Identify incumbent vulnerabilities
  3. Find differentiation opportunities
  4. Support themes with data
Win Theme Examples Based on Intelligence:

Displacing a Declining Incumbent

Intelligence Basis:
  • Incumbent has 3 deobligations (totaling -$500K)
  • No positive modifications in 18 months
  • Task order volume declining
Win Theme: “Unlike the current contractor whose scope and funding have been reduced due to performance issues, we bring proven delivery excellence demonstrated by our 15% average contract growth across 12 similar engagements.”

Demonstrating Agency Experience

Intelligence Basis:
  • Our company has 8 contracts with target agency
  • Competitors have 0-2 contracts with agency
  • We know key contracting officers
Win Theme: “Our deep understanding of your mission and processes, proven through 8 successful contracts over 5 years including direct work with your Program Office, positions us to deliver value from day one without a learning curve.”

Right-Sized for the Work

Intelligence Basis:
  • Our average contract size: $2.1M
  • Opportunity size: $2.5M
  • Competitor average: $8M (too large)
Win Theme: “With our sweet spot in the 1.5M−1.5M-3M range, this contract receives our senior leadership’s direct attention, unlike larger competitors for whom this represents a small, easily-neglected engagement.”

Emerging Technology Leader

Intelligence Basis:
  • Our last 5 contracts focused on cloud migration
  • Incumbent has no cloud contracts
  • Competitors have limited cloud experience
Win Theme: “While competitors are still building their cloud capabilities, our specialized focus on cloud modernization—proven in 5 successful migrations over 18 months—ensures you benefit from current best practices and lessons learned.”

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Phase 7: Capture Plan Development

Goal: Create comprehensive capture plan Intelligence Center Contributions:
  • Executive Summary: Market intelligence and competitive landscape
  • Competitive Analysis: Detailed competitor profiles with contract data
  • Win Strategy: Themes and discriminators based on intelligence
  • Teaming Strategy: Partner selection and justification
  • Pricing Strategy: Price-to-win analysis with benchmarks
  • Risk Assessment: Incumbent strengths and competitive threats
Include specific contract numbers, values, and dates in your capture plan. This data substantiates your analysis and demonstrates thorough research.

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Capture Artifacts You Can Create

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1. Competitive Intelligence Brief

Content:
  • Incumbent analysis (contract history, performance, relationships)
  • Competitive landscape (3-5 competitors with profiles)
  • Market trends (contract values, types, agencies)
  • Recommendations (positioning, teaming, pricing)
How to Build:
  1. Export contract data for incumbent + competitors
  2. Create comparison tables (values, agencies, mods)
  3. Add analysis and insights
  4. Include relationship maps
  5. Develop recommendations

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2. Price-to-Win Analysis

Content:
  • Historical contract values for similar work
  • Contract type analysis (FFP, T&M, cost-plus)
  • Modification patterns (price growth indicators)
  • Recommended pricing range
  • Competitive positioning
How to Build:
  1. Search for similar NAICS/PSC codes
  2. Filter to target agency if possible
  3. Export contract values and types
  4. Analyze modification patterns
  5. Calculate recommended range

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3. Relationship Map

Content:
  • Key contracting officers
  • Program officials and technical POCs
  • Current contractor relationships
  • Your existing relationships
  • Gap analysis and outreach plan
How to Build:
  1. Review POC data for incumbent contracts
  2. Note contracting officers and roles
  3. Check your past contracts for relationships
  4. Map connections and gaps
  5. Prioritize relationship building

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4. Teaming Justification

Content:
  • Potential partner identification
  • Capability assessment via contract history
  • Past performance validation
  • Role recommendation (prime vs. sub)
  • Workshare and management approach
How to Build:
  1. Search potential partners
  2. Review their relevant contracts
  3. Assess agency experience
  4. Check contract sizes (right-sized?)
  5. Validate performance (positive mods?)

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Real-World Capture Scenarios

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Scenario: Unseating an Incumbent

Situation: Your team is pursuing a $3M IT support contract currently held by Acme Solutions for 5 years. Intelligence Center Actions:
1

Research Incumbent Performance

Search “Acme Solutions” and find their current contract:
  • Original value: $2.8M (2018)
  • Current value: $2.4M (after 3 deobligations)
  • Negative mods: -$400K over last 2 years
  • No positive mods since 2021
Insight: Incumbent is underperforming. Government has reduced funding multiple times.
2

Understand Agency's Needs

Review Acme’s other contracts with the agency:
  • Similar scope, but performing well (positive mods)
  • This contract is an outlier (poor performance)
Insight: Agency knows good work when they see it. This is contractor problem, not buyer problem.
3

Assess Competition

Search 3 other known competitors:
  • None have current contracts with this agency
  • Average deal size: $4-6M (may view as too small)
Insight: Limited direct competition. We may be primary alternative to incumbent.
4

Develop Win Strategy

Positioning: Fresh start with proven deliveryWin Themes:
  • Emphasize our strong performance record (cite positive mods on our contracts)
  • Highlight relevant agency experience
  • Demonstrate right-sizing (this is our sweet spot)
Price Strategy: Match incumbent’s original price ($2.8M) but with clear deliverables to show value
Result: Win probability increases from 30% to 65% based on incumbent vulnerabilities and limited competition.

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Scenario: Breaking Into a New Agency

Situation: Your team wants to expand into the Department of Energy (DOE) but has no current relationships there. Intelligence Center Actions:
1

Market Research

Search 5-7 companies known to work in DOE:
  • Review their contract types and sizes
  • Note common NAICS/PSC codes
  • Identify typical contract structures (IDIQ vs. standalone)
Insight: DOE prefers IDIQ vehicles with task orders. Average task order: $800K.
2

Identify Entry Points

Filter contracts by size:
  • Look for contracts under $1M (easier entry)
  • Note small business set-asides
  • Check for 8(a), SDVOSB, or WOSB opportunities
Insight: 40% of sub-$1M contracts are set-asides. Partner with small business to enter market.
3

Find Teaming Partners

Search small businesses working in DOE:
  • Review their contract history
  • Assess capability alignment
  • Verify active contracts (good standing)
Insight: Beta Consulting (8(a) firm) has 3 active DOE contracts, complementary capabilities.
4

Map Relationships

Extract POC data from Beta’s DOE contracts:
  • Identify contracting officers
  • Note program offices
  • Track active procurements
Insight: Two contracting officers award 70% of relevant work. Target relationships.
Result: Clear market entry strategy via small business teaming, with specific targets and relationships to build.

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Best Practices for Capture Use

Start Early

Begin intelligence gathering as soon as you identify an opportunity. Don’t wait until the RFP drops.

Update Regularly

Refresh your intelligence monthly during long capture cycles. New contracts and modifications change the landscape.

Share with Your Team

Use the URL sharing feature to give capture team members access to the same intelligence you’re viewing.

Document Your Sources

Include contract numbers and dates in your capture documents. This substantiates your analysis.

Combine with Other Intel

Use Intelligence Center data alongside other sources (LinkedIn, company websites, SAM.gov) for complete picture.

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Common Capture Mistakes to Avoid

Mistake 1: Only Researching the IncumbentDon’t focus solely on the current contractor. Research 3-5 potential competitors to understand the full competitive landscape.
Mistake 2: Ignoring Contract Performance IndicatorsLook beyond contract values. Modification patterns, deobligations, and task order volumes indicate performance and relationships.
Mistake 3: Overlooking Small ContractsSmall contracts often lead to larger opportunities. Track your competitors’ entry points and follow their growth trajectory.
Mistake 4: Assuming Contract Values Are FinalBase contract values don’t tell the full story. Review modifications to understand actual spending and scope evolution.

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Integration with Rogue Capture

The Intelligence Center integrates seamlessly with other Rogue Capture features:
  • Opportunities: Link intelligence to specific opportunities you’re tracking
  • Competitive Intel: Feed contract data into SWOT analyses and competitor profiles
  • Capture Plans: Include intelligence in win strategy development
  • Relationships: Identify POCs to add to your stakeholder maps
When you identify a competitor or POC in the Intelligence Center, add them directly to your opportunity’s competitive intelligence or relationship sections.

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What’s Next?

Tracking Competitors

Ongoing competitor monitoring

SWOT Analysis

Building competitive assessments

Win Themes Development

Creating compelling themes

Price-to-Win

Competitive pricing strategies
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