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The Most Expensive Decision You’ll Make

Chasing the wrong opportunity can cost you $100K+ in capture and proposal costs, 6-12 months of your team’s time, and the opportunity cost of missing the contracts you could have won. Getting the bid/no-bid decision right is the difference between profitable growth and expensive failure.
The brutal truth: Most companies pursue too many opportunities they can’t win. Smart contractors win more by bidding less - but bidding the right opportunities with maximum investment.

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Decision Framework

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Your Four Options (Choose Wisely)

Go All In (Bid)

When to choose: You have over 30% win probability and this contract matters to your business What you commit: Full capture team, customer meetings, proposal development What it costs: 50K−50K-200K+ depending on opportunity size What you get: The best shot at winning significant new revenue

Walk Away (No Bid)

When to choose: You can’t win (weak position, no relationships, wrong fit) What you commit: Document why you passed and move on What it costs: Time to document decision (30 minutes) What you get: Capture resources freed up for winnable opportunities

Partner Up (Teaming)

When to choose: You can’t prime but can add value as a subcontractor What you commit: Partner outreach, teaming agreements, supporting role What it costs: Moderate investment in relationship building What you get: Revenue share without full capture investment

Stay Informed (Watching)

When to choose: You need more information before deciding What you commit: Monitoring alerts, minimal intelligence gathering What it costs: Very low - just staying aware of developments What you get: Intelligence for future similar opportunities

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The Questions That Actually Matter

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Can You Win This Thing?

The Technical Reality Check:
  • Have you done this exact type of work before? (They want proof, not promises)
  • Can you show relevant past performance? (Government contracts only count)
  • Are there any deal-killer requirements you can’t meet?
The Competitive Landscape:
  • Who has this contract now and are they vulnerable? (Incumbents win 70% of the time)
  • Who else will bid and why should you beat them? (Know your competition)
  • What makes you different and better? (If you can’t answer this clearly, don’t bid)
The Relationship Reality:
  • Do decision makers know who you are? (Unknown companies rarely win)
  • What’s your reputation with this customer? (Past performance matters)
  • Have you ever won anything with them before? (Track record counts)
Strategic Fit Questions:
  • Is this the kind of work you want to be known for?
  • Does winning this help you win similar contracts in the future?
  • Will this strengthen or distract from your core business?
Portfolio Balance:
  • Are you too dependent on one customer already? (Diversification reduces risk)
  • Does this fit your risk tolerance and contract type preferences?
  • Do you have the capacity to take on this work if you win?
Learning and Growth:
  • Will this open doors to bigger or better opportunities?
  • Does this build relationships you need for future growth?
  • Will you develop new capabilities that make you more competitive?
The Real Cost of Capture:
  • How much will you spend on capture activities? (Travel, team time, consultants)
  • Do you have the right people available when you need them?
  • How long will this take and what else could you be doing?
Proposal Development Reality:
  • What will it cost to write a winning proposal? (20K−20K-200K+ is normal)
  • Do you have proposal experts available during the proposal period?
  • Will you need expensive consultants or specialized expertise?
Can You Actually Perform:
  • Do you have the people to staff this contract if you win?
  • Can you hire and train the team you’ll need?
  • Do you have facilities, equipment, and systems ready?
Revenue and Profit Reality:
  • Is this contract big enough to matter to your business? (Small contracts cost as much to chase as big ones)
  • Can you price low enough to win and still make money?
  • How much profit will you make over the life of the contract?
Return on Investment:
  • If you spend $100K chasing this, how much will you make back?
  • How long will it take to recover your capture investment?
  • What’s your risk-adjusted return? (30% win probability = 30% of expected profit)
Cash Flow Considerations:
  • How does the government pay? (Monthly? After deliverables? Reimbursable?)
  • Will you need working capital to cover costs before you get paid?
  • Can your business handle the cash flow requirements?

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How to Actually Make the Decision

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Step 1: The 5-Minute Filter

Don’t waste time analyzing opportunities you can’t win:
1

Can You Even Compete?

  • Do you meet mandatory requirements? (Security clearances, certifications, size standards)
  • Is this the right contract size? (Too small wastes time, too large wastes money)
  • Are there deal-killer barriers you can’t overcome?
2

Does This Fit Your Business?

  • Is this work you want to be doing?
  • Do you have the capabilities they’re buying?
  • Does the timing work with your team availability?
3

Can You Realistically Win?

  • Is the incumbent beatable? (Happy customers don’t usually switch)
  • Do you have relationships with decision makers?
  • What’s your honest win probability? (If it’s under 20%, stop here)

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Step 2: Do the Math

For opportunities that pass the filter, run the numbers: Win Probability Reality Check:
  • Technical match: Can you do this work? (1-10 score)
  • Competitive position: How do you stack up? (1-10 score)
  • Customer relationships: Do they know and trust you? (1-10 score)
  • Overall win probability: Be brutally honest (multiply the scores)
Financial Reality Check:
  • What will capture cost you? (Team time, travel, consultants)
  • What will the proposal cost? (Usually 20K−20K-200K+)
  • What profit will you make if you win?
  • Expected value: Win probability × profit = is this worth it?
Risk Reality Check:
  • What could go wrong and kill this opportunity?
  • How likely are these risks and what would they cost you?
  • Can you live with losing your entire investment?
  • Does this fit your risk tolerance?

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Step 3: Make the Call

Get the right people involved and document your decision:
  1. Get Team Input: Talk to your technical, capture, and finance people
  2. Get Leadership Buy-in: Present your analysis and get approval for resources
  3. Document Everything: Record why you decided and what assumptions you made
  4. Commit the Resources: Allocate people and budget to execute your decision
  5. Set Success Metrics: Define what success looks like and how you’ll measure it

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Document Your Decision (You’ll Thank Yourself Later)

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Why Documentation Matters

Six months from now, when a similar opportunity comes up, you’ll need to remember why you made this decision. Plus, if you’re audited or need to explain your choices to investors, you’ll need the records. What to Capture:
  • Final Decision: Bid/No Bid/Teaming/Watching
  • Why You Decided: The key factors that drove your choice
  • Confidence Level: How sure are you? (1-10 scale)
  • Win Probability: Your honest assessment for bid decisions
  • Resource Authorization: Who approved spending money on this
Supporting Information:
  • Competition Analysis: Who you’re up against and why you can beat them (or can’t)
  • Capability Assessment: Whether you can actually do this work
  • Financial Analysis: Costs, profits, and return on investment
  • Risk Assessment: What could go wrong and how you’ll handle it
  • Strategic Rationale: How this fits your business strategy

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Right-Sized Analysis

Don’t spend 10Kanalyzinga10K analyzing a 100K opportunity:
  • Large Opportunities (over $50M): Full analysis with multiple stakeholder input
  • Medium Opportunities ($5-50M): Solid analysis but time-boxed
  • Small Opportunities (under $5M): Quick evaluation, document key points
  • IDIQ/GSA: Focus on getting on the contract, not individual task orders
  • Teaming Decisions: Emphasize partnership value and workshare analysis

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Don’t Make These Expensive Mistakes

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Emotional Decision-Making

Stop Making These Bad Decisions:
  • “We always bid with this customer” (Loyalty doesn’t equal win probability)
  • “We never win against this incumbent” (Past results don’t predict future performance)
  • “This opportunity is huge so we have to bid” (Big contracts cost big money to chase)
  • “We know the contracting officer personally” (Relationships help, but don’t guarantee wins)

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Analysis Paralysis

Warning Signs You’re Overthinking It:
  • You’ve been analyzing a $500K opportunity for three weeks
  • You keep asking for “just one more piece of information”
  • The RFP is about to drop and you still haven’t decided
  • You’re researching instead of building relationships with the customer
How to Decide Faster:
  • Set a decision deadline and stick to it (usually 2 weeks max)
  • Use quick analysis for smaller opportunities (under $1M)
  • Default to “watching” if you’re uncertain - you can always upgrade to “bid” later
  • Focus on the three most important decision factors, not everything

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Not Enough Intelligence

Common Blind Spots That Kill Bids:
  • You don’t really know who your competition is
  • You’re guessing about customer priorities and hot buttons
  • You don’t know if the incumbent is vulnerable or beloved
  • You don’t understand the real budget or timeline constraints
How to Get Better Information:
  • Talk to government stakeholders before you decide (not after)
  • Monitor your competitors’ job postings, press releases, and LinkedIn updates
  • Attend every industry day and customer event you can
  • Use market research services and industry analysis to fill gaps

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Your Decision Isn’t Set in Stone

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When to Reconsider Your Decision

Things change in government contracting. Stay flexible: Red Flags That Should Trigger a Review:
  • Major amendments that change the scope or requirements
  • Key competitors drop out or new dangerous ones enter
  • Customer budget gets cut or timeline shifts significantly
  • Your key team members become unavailable
  • Company priorities change
How Decisions Can Evolve:
  • Watching → Bid: You gather intelligence that shows you can win
  • Bid → No Bid: Competition gets too fierce or requirements change
  • Prime → Teaming: Better to partner than compete directly
  • No Bid → Watching: Market intelligence value becomes apparent

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Improve Your Decision-Making Over Time

Track your performance to get better: Measure Your Success:
  • Win Rate: What percentage of “Bid” decisions actually win?
  • Teaming Value: How much revenue do partnerships generate?
  • Intelligence ROI: Does watching provide valuable competitive information?
  • Savings from No-Bids: How much did you save by not chasing losers?
Get Better at Deciding:
  • Review your wins and losses quarterly - what patterns do you see?
  • Analyze why your win probability estimates were right or wrong
  • Update your decision criteria based on what you learn
  • Train your team on better decision-making processes

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Think Portfolio, Not Individual Opportunities

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Consider Your Entire Pipeline

Don’t make decisions in isolation: Portfolio Balance Questions:
  • Are you too dependent on one customer or agency? (Diversification reduces risk)
  • Do you have too many high-risk, high-reward opportunities? (Balance is key)
  • Are your team resources spread too thin across too many pursuits? (Focus wins contracts)
  • Are you building capabilities for the future or just chasing revenue today?
Smart Portfolio Management:
  • Pursue a mix of high-probability/medium-value and medium-probability/high-value opportunities
  • Don’t bid everything - concentrate resources on your best opportunities
  • Consider resource constraints and conflicts when making multiple bid decisions
  • Maintain strategic positioning across your target markets and agencies

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What Happens After You Decide

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If You Decide to Bid

Time to get serious about winning:
  • Build Your Capture Plan: Develop a comprehensive strategy for winning
  • Assign Your Team: Allocate the right people with the right skills
  • Start Customer Engagement: Begin building relationships with decision makers
  • Develop Your Strategy: Define win themes, differentiators, and competitive approach

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If You Decide to Team

Time to find the right partners:
  • Identify Prime Candidates: Research companies likely to bid prime
  • Develop Teaming Strategy: Define your value proposition as a subcontractor
  • Negotiate Workshare: Determine roles, responsibilities, and revenue split
  • Plan Joint Capture: Coordinate capture activities with your prime partner

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If You Decide to Watch

Stay informed without major investment:
  • Set up Intelligence Gathering: Monitor for key developments and changes
  • Minimal Resource Allocation: Just enough to stay informed
  • Regular Review Schedule: Check in monthly to see if circumstances change
  • Learn for the Future: Capture insights that will help with similar opportunities
Ready to build a winning strategy? Learn about capture team management for your qualified opportunities.
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